Primary sources · 4
- [1] IATA — SAF production analysis — December 2024 release on actual SAF production reaching 1 million tonnes, 0.3 % of jet-fuel demand · IATA · December 2024 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-12-10-03/
- [2] ATAG — Sustainable aviation fuel landing page — Industry overview of SAF production pathways, lifecycle CO₂ reductions, and 2050 targets · Air Transport Action Group · Current https://atag.org/industry-topics/sustainable-aviation-fuel
- [3] ReFuelEU Aviation regulation — EU mandate on SAF blending in jet fuel sold at EU airports — 2 % in 2025 rising to 70 % in 2050 · European Commission · Regulation (EU) 2023/2405 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32023R2405
- [4] IATA Fly Net Zero 2050 — Industry resolution targeting 65 % SAF in jet-fuel mix by 2050 (449 billion litres) · IATA AGM 77, Boston · 4 October 2021 https://www.iata.org/en/programs/sustainability/flynetzero/
SAF is jet fuel produced from sustainable feedstocks instead of fossil crude. Drop-in compatibility with existing aircraft engines is the technical bright spot; cost and supply are the dark ones. In 2024 the world produced about 1 million tonnes of SAF, less than 1 % of what the industry needs by 2030 to stay on its own net-zero path.
What counts as SAF
SAF is any liquid fuel that meets ASTM D7566 (the drop-in specification for aviation turbine fuel from non-petroleum sources) and demonstrates a significant lifecycle CO₂ reduction versus fossil Jet A-1. Current commercially produced SAF comes from used cooking oil, animal fats, algae, and agricultural residues; emerging pathways include power-to- liquid (e-SAF) using captured CO₂ plus green hydrogen.
| Pathway | Feedstock | Lifecycle CO₂ vs fossil |
|---|---|---|
| HEFA (most current SAF) | Used cooking oil, tallow, vegetable oils | ≈ 70 – 85 % less |
| Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) | Ethanol from sugar/cellulose | ≈ 50 – 75 % less |
| Fischer-Tropsch (FT) | Forest/agricultural residue, municipal waste | ≈ 80 – 95 % less |
| Power-to-Liquid (e-SAF) | CO₂ + green hydrogen | ≈ 90 – 99 % less (with renewable power) |
The production gap
Global SAF production doubled from 2023 to 2024 — from about 0.5 to 1.0 million tonnes. To stay on the IATA Fly Net Zero pathway, production needs to reach about 18 million tonnes by 2030, an 18 × increase in six years. Industry analysts (BCG, ICCT) estimate actual 2030 production will land closer to 9–12 million tonnes, leaving a 30–50 % shortfall against the IATA pathway.
The 2050 number reflects the 449 billion litres (about 350 million tonnes) IATA targets for net-zero — a 350 × increase over current production. Even at the optimistic 2030 estimate the industry would be roughly 5 % of where the pathway requires it to be.
ReFuelEU is the binding mandate
The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation (effective 2025) requires fuel suppliers to blend SAF into jet fuel sold at EU airports — starting at 2 % in 2025 and rising to 70 % in 2050. A specific e-SAF sub-mandate starts at 1.2 % in 2030 rising to 35 % in 2050. The UK has a similar SAF mandate at 2 % in 2025 rising to 22 % in 2040. These regional mandates are the mechanism by which industry-level voluntary pathways become legally binding production demand.
| Jurisdiction | 2025 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU (ReFuelEU) | 2 % | 6 % | 34 % | 70 % |
| EU e-SAF sub-mandate | — | 1.2 % | 10 % | 35 % |
| UK SAF mandate | 2 % | 10 % | 22 % | — |
| US — Inflation Reduction Act tax credit | — | — | — | — |
The US approach is different: no blending mandate, instead an Inflation Reduction Act production tax credit of up to $1.75 per gallon of SAF. The mechanism is supply-side rather than demand-side, and producer response is sensitive to credit qualification rules that are still being finalised.
Cost is the binding constraint
SAF costs roughly 2–5 × fossil jet fuel today, depending on pathway and region. The cost gap is structural — feedstock supply is constrained (HEFA cannot scale beyond the available used-cooking-oil supply worldwide), refining capacity is being built incrementally, and e-SAF requires green hydrogen at industrial scale, which is itself an emerging technology. Most analysts expect the cost gap to close to 1.5–2 × by 2040 and possibly 1.1–1.5 × by 2050.